INNOVATSION O‘ZGARISHLAR ASOSIDA AHOLI FAROVONLIGINI OSHIRISHNING 2030-YILGACHA MO‘LJALLANGAN PROGNOZ SSENARIYLARI VA ULARNING SEZGIRLIK TAHLILI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21982729Abstract
Maqolada innovatsion o‘zgarishlar asosida kambag‘allikni qisqartirish va aholi farovonligini
oshirishning 2030-yilgacha mo‘ljallangan prognoz ssenariylari ishlab chiqiladi. Prognoz uslubiyati ekonometrik
model asosida baholangan uzoq muddatli elastikliklarni ssenariy yondashuvi bilan birlashtiradi. Bazaviy (55%),
optimistik (25%) va pessimistik (20%) ssenariylar bo‘yicha kambag‘allik darajasi, ekstremal kambag‘allik,
Jini koeffitsiyenti, inson taraqqiyoti va moliyaviy inklyuziya indekslarining trayektoriyalari hisoblanadi hamda
ehtimollik bilan vaznlangan kutilayotgan qiymat aniqlanadi. Sezgirlik tahlili (tornado diagrammasi) prognoz
noaniqligining asosiy manbalari inersiya koeffitsiyenti va dasturning amalga oshirilish darajasi ekanini
ko‘rsatadi, bu esa strategiya muvaffaqiyatining hal qiluvchi sharti amalga oshirish intizomi ekani to‘g‘risidagi
xulosani miqdoriy asoslaydi.
Keywords
prognoz ssenariylari; kambag‘allik darajasi; aholi farovonligi; kutilayotgan qiymat; sezgirlik tahlili; tornado diagrammasi; inson taraqqiyoti indeksi; moliyaviy inklyuziyaReferences
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